The map below shows you what Marc Ambinder (echoing the Conventional Wisdom) expects. Blue = D, grey-green = lean D, green = tossup, yellow = lean R, red = R. (Sorry about the unconventional coloring.) A few notes -- 1. I don't see the "lean R" states as realistically in play except maybe MO and NV. There's been a lot of talk about Virginia, but Jim Webb barely won against a free-falling George Allen despite the (then) unpopularity of the administration and Webb's strength in western VA, where Obama is weak. Obama will have a much harder time against a non-free-falling McCain. His only hope is to get immense turnout in suburban DC and barely scrape by. 2. If Obama holds on in PA, sweeps the upper midwest, and loses Ohio, he'll be at 273, which will put him barely over the mark. This is probably his best shot; unless he implodes, it's not that unreasonable. 3. This election would look vastly different if the winner were decided by popular vote.